ASIAN AFFAIRS ON TAIWAN Zhang Xianyao - Director - Policy Research Center - People's First party FOR A COHABITATION 'A LA FRANÇAISE" Serge Berthier (SB).- The leader of your party, James Soong, lost the Presidential election by a very narrow margin in a three-way contest (1). Today your party and the KMT control the legislature, yet the DPP considers that it is the "ruling party". Do you accept such terminology? Zhang Xianyao (ZXY).- For the past year or so, we are going through a major problem that we can attribute to the fact that we have a constitutional system which has yet to be fully understood and implemented. A very famous scholar of Constitution Laws, Professor Duverger qualifies our system a semi-presidential one, quite similar to the French Constitutional system of the Fifth Republic. The President is elected directly and controls the Foreign Affairs, the National Security and in our case, the relationship with the Mainland. The Prime Minister and the Cabinet are responsible for the domestic affairs and deal mostly with internal and economic issues. They are accountable to the Legislature. Currently the President is from one party and the Legislative Yuan is controlled by the opposition to the President. It is a situation quite similar to what happened in France in 1986 when President Mitterand lost his majority in the Legislature. The outcome was the power-sharing system called "cohabitation" that took place in France between the socialists and the right. Today France has again a government of "cohabitation". President Chirac won the election but lost the majority of the Legislature which is controlled by the Socialists. The Prime Minister, Mr. Jospin, is the leader of the Socialists. He is an opponent of President Chirac. But that power-sharing system works. In Taiwan, our party and the KMT considers that President Chen should act the same way President Mitterand did in 1986. He does not control the Legislature and therefore we should have a government of "cohabitation", with a power-sharing agreement between the Presidency and a Cabinet issued from the majority of the Legislative Yuan. But President Chen did not agree and so we ended with a crisis. SB.- Right now, the Legislative Yuan does not try to bring down the Executive Yuan. According to the DPP, it is because there is no public support for such a move. ZXY.- President Chen has a problem with the Legislative Yuan. He cannot implement his policies since the majority of the deputies do not support them, but we will have an election at the end of the year and it should bring an end to the current paralysis. SB.- Is it because there is an election coming that might give him a majority or because he fundamentally disagrees with the concept of a semi-presidential system that President Chen does not move on the issue? ZXY.- President Chen considers that our interpretation of the Constitution is not correct and that the French experience is irrelevant. Yet, it is very clear that we do not have an American system. Taiwan has a President and a Prime Minister. The Prime Minister reports to the Legislature. Both men could be from opposite camps. But President Chen is looking at the American model that Taiwan scholars know better. SB.- In the past, Taiwan had a strong Presidential system and the President was not elected directly. The Constitution has been revised to allow for a direct election of the President but is it enough to call the system a semi-presidential one since the President has not really lost much of his authority in the process? ZXY.- Besides the fact that we have a Prime Minister that should get his authority from the Legislative Yuan, the President does not have a veto on the resolutions of the Parliament. If you look at the American model, the President could be facing a hostile Congress. Currently President Bush does not control it anymore. But he has a veto on the decisions of the Congress. Our Constitution does not provide the President with a veto and therefore the people should understand that our system of governance is quite different from the American one. But many fail to see the difference. SB.- What is going to happen next then? ZXY.- Everyone is waiting for the next legislative election to solve the problem. Of course, and it is natural, President Chen works on a scenario where the DPP will get the majority. So the problem would disappear. We would accept the outcome since the majority party would govern. But President Chen forgets one thing: the DPP cannot win a majority so the problem is not going to disappear. SB.- Why are you so sure that he cannot get his majority? He is getting a strong support from Lee Teng-hui who is asking the KMT to support the President to the point that his supporters have founded a new party to splinter the votes of the KMT. ZXY.- The KMT and our party have already signed an electoral pact. We know that President Chen is betting on the support of Lee Teng-hui. In fact, not so long ago, Mr. Lee came to see the current leader of the KMT, Mr. Lien, to ask him to cooperate with the DPP. Mr. Lien was extremely unhappy and that is why he came to see James Soong, our leader, to forge an electoral alliance. If our alliance wins the election, we will force President Chen to implement the cohabitation model. There is no reason why it could not work since it works elsewhere. SB.- What is your own working scenario for the next election (December 2001)? ZXY.- President Chen works on a scenario to win an absolute majority of the 224 seats. But the KMT is likely to win 80 seats and our party 60. That makes it unlikely for the DPP and its allies to win a majority.
SB.- How many seats do you think the DPP will win on its own? ZXY.- At the most 70. SB.- That will not make the DPP the first party, since the KMT would, if you are right, win more seats than the DPP. ZXY.- Right. The DPP is not going to be the largest party in the Legislature (2). SB.- The Taiwanese voter was in the past voting for a single party. Then, when he had the choice, he thought he was voting for one or the other and that the winner would govern. Today the game becomes more sophisticated. You ask the people to vote for an alliance that is opposed to President Chen. Is it very well understood? ZXY.- No. That is one of our problems. The Taiwanese are familiar with the American system. They have no knowledge of other systems and no reference. They do not know the European model. We need to explain to them what is happening, why and how it works. SB.- Is the local media pro-cohabitation or pro-presidential? ZXY.- It is mentally tuned to the United States and the journalists are not familiar with other systems. So we have to educate them. SB.- Today, how many people support the concept of the semi-presidential system? ZXY.- We could consider that about 50% of the population understand that the system they know could change but everyone is waiting the result of the election. SB.- So that election is important not only for its outcome but because it could be a milestone turning the Taiwanese system towards a true multi-party system. ZXY.- Right. But people need time to understand that the government is not just a President. For long, the Taiwanese people believed that the President was the only political authority. They have to understand that the Parliament is the true expression of the people's will. That is a big difference they have yet to appreciate. SB.- This is assuming that all is going well, but each time the authority of the President has been challenged in the past, the Constitution was revised to accomodate his views. That is why in fact we have today a half-baked system. President Chen could be tempted to push for a revision to keep control of the government. Can we discount this scenario from happening if the outcome of the election is not in his favor? ZXY.- If the DPP is waiting for the population to push for a change in the Constitution, it will be disappointed. And, in the end, assuming that the KMT and our party have the majority, if a revision of the Constitution was tabled once again, we would veto the government. SB.- That is what you say. But in the past, each time a veto was branded as the ultimate action, it never happened. After all, you did not veto Prime Minister Chang. Why? ZXY.- We could put down the government but it is not necessary since we have the election coming. If, after the election, the DPP remains in the minority and our coalition has the majority, we will not accept the current situation. As I said, the President will have to agree to a cohabitation. The only reason he is not accepting the situation right now is because he hopes that the election will go his way. He will move only when he is cornered and has no choice but to respect the outcome of the legislative election. SB.- Your leader, James Soong and the leader of the KMT, Mr. Lien were both members of the KMT when Taiwan had a very strong Presidential system. Today, they both are the champions of the semi-presidential system, but both lost the Presidential election. Can we think that what we have is a second round of Presidential election in disguise? ZXY.- What both realize is that Taiwan is changing and must change. Everybody knows that the KMT has a big problem to solve within its ranks. The former President, Lee Teng-hui, who was the leader of the KMT, is a strong supporter of the past Presidential system. The current leader, Mr. Liem, has a different view. They belong to different generations and so they differ on the issue. SB.- Besides this internal debate on ways to share the power, what are the main differences between the opposition and the DPP? ZXY.- The main differences between the parties are about the Mainland. How to treat the relationship with the Mainland is a major issue and we have fundamental differences. But another non-negotiable difference is that the DPP does not have the experience to run a country. Its policies have exacerbated the economic problems. The result is clear. People have lost confidence in the government. They invest elsewhere and it is a big problem. Domestic investments are at their lowest.The business community is investing in the Mainland because, when they look at opportunities, they make no difference between the Mainland and Taiwan. The Mainland offers a better economic environment. All the leaders of our largest industrial companies agree on that. Furthermore, for many reaosns, it is a necessity to invest in the Mainland. For example, the President of Formosa Group has publicly stated that 20% of the assets of the group are to be in the Mainland. Yet officially, he is not supposed to do that. So what do the tycoons do? From Taiwan, they channel their investment through Hong Kong then to Guangdong or elsewhere. It is not a secret. That is the way it works. SB.- But you don't disagree with such policies? ZXY.- No. We are telling the President to change the policies towards the Mainland so that they become relevant to the situation. But the reply is that we can't do it, we have to wait for the opportunity. (Note: the so-called opportunity came on August 26th, 2001, a few weeks after the interview). SB.- The WTO? ZXY.- Exactly. The DPP has this idea that the cross-strait dialogue could take place under the veil of the World Trade Organization. But the Mainland does not agree. And why would the Mainland agree? Right now, who is losing out? The Mainland does nothing. Nevertheless, the Taiwanese invest massively in the economy. So we are clearly the loser in this waiting game. And right now, the DPP does not want to speak with the Beijing authorities. SB.- We have been told at length that it can't be done because of the so-called "one-China" principle. Don't you agree with that stand? ZXY.- It is an ideological issue. We think it is a bit ridiculous to have such a debate because, for us, China and Taiwan are the same. We share the same culture, the same people, the same land. We have many Mainlanders in Taiwan and many Taiwanese in the Mainland. SB.- Indeed, but it does not mean that you have to recognize a regime you dislike. ZXY.- That is precisely the point. The DPP refuses the Chinese culture because of the regime, but our party considers that the communist regime of the Mainland has absolutely nothing to do with the Chinese culture. It is a different issue. You can't confuse the issues and say that politics and culture are the same thing. We have here two different criteria. They should not be confused, but they are and Beijing is quite upset to see the DPP brandishing around such an argument. SB.- So, would you say there is one China and two political regimes? Isn' it what the DPP is saying when it calls for independence from the political regime of the Mainland? ZXY.- First let me point out that President Chen is not in favor of the independence while the DPP is a party in favor of it. So the question is not exactly linked to the Presidency. President Chen, when Mayor of Taipei, proved that he could revise his positions when under pressure. SB.- Right, but what trust could you have in a man that changes his position when under pressure? If the pressure is for independence, he may change his position again. And after all, one can think that he is relatively quiet because he does not control the Legislature, but what would happen if the DPP did? ZXY.- He changed his position not because of the weakness of the DPP, nor because of the risk of war but because the Americans did not support his views. SB.- What is the position of your party towards the United States? ZXY.- It is a very complicated issue. To answer that question, we have to look at the broader picture. First you have to assume that Beijing would like to dominate the region. The Americans do not like such an idea and cannot accept it. They want to monitor China. To do so they used different means. The Beijing regime understands perfectly the geo-political game that is going on. SB.- And Taiwan is part of the game, on the assumption that it can be used to put a brake on China. ZXY.- Yes. SB.- The cold war has ended. Today I think it is legitimate to ask the question: is it in the best interest of Taiwan to accept to be a pawn between China and the United States? ZXY.- That is the correct question because we have to admit that we are a pawn but have no real say. Our relationship with the United States is an ambiguous one. I give you an example. Quite recently, President Bush agreed to sell sub-marines to Taiwan, but the decision is not what it looks like. We wanted to buy French sub-marines. The Americans did not like the idea. So they made the decision to offer twelve sub-marines in their package. SB.- They did not want to lose a market! ZXY.- Yes, but the meaning of it is that the Americans are telling everybody that they do not want anyone in their sphere of influence. They are telling the Mainland authorities that they won't be allowed to penetrate into the American sphere of influence. For the US, Taiwan has a strategic role to play, very much like Japan has one or even the Philippines. It is part of their Asia-Pacific strategy. SB.- How then can Taiwan articulate a position towards the Mainland of its own free will? What would the government of the alliance do about it if it were in place? ZXY.- As it is a difficult issue,we are still not fully in agreement with the KMT on how to handle it. What we need to do is to find out a consensus on how to treat the US, China and Japan and the European Union because it is the larger picture that counts. We need a strategic balance in the region. For the time being, we do not have such a balance. We need to develop our relations with Europe but also with Japan to find a new political equilibrium. We have to find what is the role of Taiwan and what is the position of the Beijing regime. In fact, we need to take the same distance with China, the US, Japan and Europe. SB.- It means putting an end to the existing balance since the distance between Taiwan and the United States is considerably shorter, if I may say, than between Taiwan and the Mainland or Taiwan and Europe. It is doubtful it can be done without upsetting the Americans. ZXY.- Well, the world is becoming smaller and smaller and what would be best for Taiwan would be to become the center of a virtuous circle. But it requires work. Summer 2001 Note: 1.- After disillusioned Kuomintang high-flier, James Soong run as an independent in the March presidential election and almost won (the margin was less than 2% between the two leading candidates, he formed the People's First Party. With assembly elections due in May 2000, both the KMT and DPP feared the new party reflecting the popularity of James Soong be a new force in the then existing National Assembly. The two parties managed to pass hasty amendment to increase the Legislative Yuan 's powers which effectively ended the role of the National Assembly. Such transfer of competence was done without imposing an effective checks-and-balances mechanism. The PFP opposed the move that is at the root of the current constitutional chaos. The PFP can trace its origin to the Chinese New Party (CNP), which was formed in August 1993, by a group made up largely of second-generation mainlander KMT members who were unhappy both with corruption in the KMT and with what they saw as the "Taiwanization" of KMT ideology and leadership. The CNP emphasizes "clean government" and the original KMT focus on reunification with the mainland. CNP influence remained modest and seemed on the wane; it won 21 of the 164 Legislative seats in the 1995 elections but only 11 of 225 seats in 1998. However, when James Soong formed a new party in the wake of the March 2000 presidential election, it took a new lease of life. The People's First Party is composed primarily of former KMT and CNP members who supported his presidential bid and his opppostion to Lee Teng-hui. The PFP currently has 38 members in the Legislative Yuan and its alliance with a renegated KMT is a major threat to the Chan Shui-ban/Lee Teng-hui coalition. 2.- That is where we can understand the strategy of Lee Teng-hui. His supporters are lining up thrity candidates in the election. The ultimate result could be that the DPP with the supporters of Lee Teng-hui while short of a majority could calim about as many seats as the KMT, thus depriving the KMT of its claim that it is the largest in the Legislative Yuan. In any case, it means that neither the DPP nor the KMT tragets an outright majority, but only the claim to be the largest single party of the country. The irony is that hte comparison with the French cohabitation model would apply in such a scenario. Neither the Socialist party nor the RPR can traget an absolute majority, but their main claim in French politics is to pretend to be the largest of any political party and be the focal point of any coalition. Spring 2001 | |||
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